Asia Pacific countries confront mounting costs of climate inaction !



Climate action depends on support from the public and political leaders for transitioning out of fossil fuels and decarbonising economies. A cleaner growth path calls for green investment and nature-based solutions. But for people and politicians to accept the financial cost to business of a green transition, they must recognise the far higher welfare cost to society of not acting.

People need to take to heart the scientific evidence that rising natural hazards are the result of human-caused global warming — much as people linked the COVID-19 virus to the pandemic and demanded a vaccine.

Climate disasters have risen sharply in the past two decades. The year 2024 was about the warmest ever, and this region is warming at nearly twice the global average. Scientific findings have shown the link between carbon emissions, rising temperatures, sea levels and more intense storms and floods. Studies find that climate change intensified the ten deadliest extreme weather events since 2004, which contributed to the deaths of at least 570,000 people. These findings need to be communicated by scientists, economists and politicians clearly to demonstrate how lives and livelihoods are being harmed and that the cost of climate action is far less than the cost of inaction.

Geography and high population density make the Asia Pacific especially vulnerable. A high-emissions scenario could cut Asia Pacific GDP by 17 per cent by 2070, with Vietnam among the hardest hit. At least four in five people affected by natural hazards live in developing Asia. Southeast Asia alone accounts for 34–40 per cent of regional disasters in recent decades.

At the same time, Asia also produces half of global carbon emissions and is home to five of the world’s largest emitters. China, India and other large emitters’ policies to curb emissions will be critical to the global effort. Fossil fuels still make up four-fifths of ASEAN’s energy and their use is still growing — a trajectory that must change.

Most Southeast Asians report perceiving climate change as an immediate and important threat when surveyed. What is missing is a readiness to make trade-offs and invest in decarbonisation. Voters should elect climate reformers at both the national and local levels. Public opinion needs to support investment in climate action.

Asia — according to one estimate — needs US$210 billion annually through 2030 for climate infrastructure. While estimates vary, this translates to 4–5 per cent of Southeast Asian GDP. Clearly, there is an urgent need to mobilise multiple sources of climate finance through innovative mechanisms.

Even with political support, renewable energy investment is typically risky. But greater transparency risks will help. Climate accounting in asset valuation, such as new disclosure and reporting laws and guidelines, can help build confidence.

Countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam would benefit from more transparent accounting of the risks as they help stakeholders in business to compare costs and benefits of climate investments using a common metric. Many Southeast Asian countries have established a common language for green investment, for example, by promoting a better understanding of green bonds and other index-linked products, as in Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam.

Carbon markets can provide another source of finance for Southeast Asia. By putting a price on carbon, businesses will be motivated to reduce emissions, as shown in Singapore, which introduced a carbon tax in 2019 and has since expanded its application. These mechanisms create economic incentives for emission reductions by allowing the buying and selling of carbon credits. Southeast Asian countries can also participate in international carbon markets, generating revenue from emissions reductions achieved through their climate projects.

Community-based initiatives, crowdfunding and social impact bonds can empower local communities to contribute to climate projects. This bottom-up approach helps finance reach those most vulnerable to climate change. Large-scale investment in cellular mobile services or digital technologies shows that success depends on viable technologies and supportive regulatory frameworks, not just top-down financing by the public sector.

In Southeast Asia, there can be greater emphasis on nature-based solutions, defined by the International Union for Conservation of Nature as actions to protect, sustainably manage and restore natural or modified ecosystems. One example is the East Asian–Australasian Flyway, one of the world’s great migratory bird routes, which utilises nature-based and climate-friendly conservation. The Philippines is also attempting to employ nature-friendly solutions to mitigate flood risks in six river basins.

It is the climate-disaster connection that brings home the perils of climate change. As deadly floods and historic wildfires across the regions signal the sharp rise in weather disasters, scientists connect climate change to rising global temperatures and moisture in the air. But the very global nature of the problem complicates efforts to track its sources.

And yet it is in the region’s own interest to transition to clean energy rapidly. If the cause-and-effect link is understood, as in the case of the virus and the pandemic, action will follow to stem runaway climate change that is exacerbating weather disasters. 𐆇 Nominate Now

Vinod Thomas is Visiting Senior Fellow at the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore, and Distinguished Fellow at the Asian Institute of Management, Philippines.



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